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By: Nicolas Ziegelasch
22.03.2018
22.03.2018
Are we underestimating the enormity of this change?
The global car industry is about to undergo a sea-change that will permanently transform road transport and the supply chain that supports it. Here our Head of Education, Tim Bennett, speaks to Nicolas Ziegelasch, our Head of Equity Research, about how he believes investors can benefit.
How important is the move towards electric vehicles?
“I believe the change that will sweep through the global car market over the next 10 to 20 years will be one of the most transformative ever to hit any sector. It can be broken down into three phases, all with different timescales. Firstly, I anticipate a significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption by consumers (and also businesses). That will be followed by the introduction of robo-taxis. The last phase will be the roll-out of fully autonomous vehicles. I think that the market is underestimating the size and speed of these changes and the profound impact they will have across multiple sectors in nearly every economy.”
“I believe the change that will sweep through the global car market over the next 10 to 20 years will be one of the most transformative ever to hit any sector. It can be broken down into three phases, all with different timescales. Firstly, I anticipate a significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption by consumers (and also businesses). That will be followed by the introduction of robo-taxis. The last phase will be the roll-out of fully autonomous vehicles. I think that the market is underestimating the size and speed of these changes and the profound impact they will have across multiple sectors in nearly every economy.”
What are the forces driving these changes?
“There are several, of which the most significant are; increasing regulatory pressure to reduce emissions in both developed and emerging markets, greater consumer awareness of the benefits of eco-friendly mobility both personal and environmental, and pure demand-creation from market leader, Tesla.”
“There are several, of which the most significant are; increasing regulatory pressure to reduce emissions in both developed and emerging markets, greater consumer awareness of the benefits of eco-friendly mobility both personal and environmental, and pure demand-creation from market leader, Tesla.”
How important is Tesla?
“Hugely. CEO Elon Musk has more or less single-handedly led the EV revolution by producing cars that are built to high quality standards and, equally importantly, are desirable to drive and use. In doing so, his firm has dragged the traditional auto makers kicking and screaming into the electric age. However, and somewhat ironically, Tesla may have been too successful in the short-term at what it does for its own longer-term good. Panicked, no doubt, by the sheer scale and speed of Tesla’s expansion, global auto giants, such as Volkswagen and General Motors, have announced multi-billion dollar investment strategies designed to implement mass-scale electric vehicle production across a large range of models. So whilst Tesla has stolen a march, the competitive landscape is likely to get much tougher – identifying a clear winner will become commensurately more difficult.”
“Hugely. CEO Elon Musk has more or less single-handedly led the EV revolution by producing cars that are built to high quality standards and, equally importantly, are desirable to drive and use. In doing so, his firm has dragged the traditional auto makers kicking and screaming into the electric age. However, and somewhat ironically, Tesla may have been too successful in the short-term at what it does for its own longer-term good. Panicked, no doubt, by the sheer scale and speed of Tesla’s expansion, global auto giants, such as Volkswagen and General Motors, have announced multi-billion dollar investment strategies designed to implement mass-scale electric vehicle production across a large range of models. So whilst Tesla has stolen a march, the competitive landscape is likely to get much tougher – identifying a clear winner will become commensurately more difficult.”
“It is clear, for example, that a huge amount of copper will be used for vehicle electrification”
What are your preferred ways to play this shift?
“As a result of this growing competitive pressure, I think some of the best routes in for investors won’t come from the auto industry directly, but rather through other beneficiaries. It is clear, for example, that a huge amount of copper will be used for vehicle electrification. This is needed, not only to build the vehicles themselves, but also for the construction of the charging networks that will support them and the associated expansion of the electricity grid. That underpins the investment case for commodities firm and copper mining specialist, Antofagasta. I also see the demand for batteries rising sharply, which should benefit firms that are bulk suppliers of battery materials such as nickel and cobalt. Commodities producer and trader, Glencore, is heavily exposed to both, in addition to copper.”
“As a result of this growing competitive pressure, I think some of the best routes in for investors won’t come from the auto industry directly, but rather through other beneficiaries. It is clear, for example, that a huge amount of copper will be used for vehicle electrification. This is needed, not only to build the vehicles themselves, but also for the construction of the charging networks that will support them and the associated expansion of the electricity grid. That underpins the investment case for commodities firm and copper mining specialist, Antofagasta. I also see the demand for batteries rising sharply, which should benefit firms that are bulk suppliers of battery materials such as nickel and cobalt. Commodities producer and trader, Glencore, is heavily exposed to both, in addition to copper.”
“Robo-taxis and ultimately fully autonomous vehicles will one day be commonplace”
When will we see robo-taxis and automated vehicles?
“These phases are a few years away yet. Nonetheless, I believe that robo-taxis and ultimately fully autonomous vehicles will one day be commonplace. The impact on carmakers is unclear at this stage as, on the one hand, there will potentially be a lower number of cars on the roads, but the flipside is that these cars will likely be driven much more frequently. This increased vehicle usage should spur demand for replacement tyres, a product that makes a significant contribution to both revenue and profit at Continental. In addition, the firm has a strong presence in advanced driver assistance (ADAS) products, such as sensors, Radar and Lidar, all of which should benefit from the increased long-term demand for driverless vehicles.”
“These phases are a few years away yet. Nonetheless, I believe that robo-taxis and ultimately fully autonomous vehicles will one day be commonplace. The impact on carmakers is unclear at this stage as, on the one hand, there will potentially be a lower number of cars on the roads, but the flipside is that these cars will likely be driven much more frequently. This increased vehicle usage should spur demand for replacement tyres, a product that makes a significant contribution to both revenue and profit at Continental. In addition, the firm has a strong presence in advanced driver assistance (ADAS) products, such as sensors, Radar and Lidar, all of which should benefit from the increased long-term demand for driverless vehicles.”
This article originally appeared in the Winter 2017 edition of our client magazine Confidant. Should you wish to read the full magazine, please contact us at; [email protected] to receive the digital version.
This article does not reflect views of Killik & Co, so please do not interpret it as a recommendation for your personal investments. If something has piqued your interest and you would like to find out more or discuss what investments might be suitable for you, please contact one of our Investment Managers on 020 7337 0777.
